Fresh Out of the Oven

Last week, I wrote the beginnings of my league wide draft analysis for the past ten years.

As promised, this weeks continuation of draft analysis and rankings by team will discuss the top five in our cookie rankings. These are the freshest of fresh, warm, right out of the oven cookies that everyone loves. The Kings, Spurs, Bucks, Suns, and Sonics (I simply refuse to acknowledge them under any other name), are all in the top 5 of our rankings. How did they get there? Better yet, after a more in depth analysis, will they remain?

First up: The Kings.

From Anthony Johnson, to Spencer Hawes, and everyone in between, what has Sac Town done to deserve our highest honor? First of all, in this span, they have only 15 selections overall. A smaller group is more easily impacted by one or two good draft choices. Their three "best" selections overall? Would you believe that Kevin Martin, and Gerald Wallace, both taken late in the first round (26, and 25 in their respective drafts) come in as only the second and third best selections in this ten year span? Number one? Jerome James.

The Jerome James? That can't be right, the guy was a career back up, and wasn't even a good back up. Okay, upon further review, his PER rating was artificially inflated due to a whopping 45 per from his 5 minutes of playing time last season. Drop him back down to reality, and now the Kings are slipping. How fitting that our first bit of controversy in the cookie rankings are due to a guy nicknamed "Big Snacks"!

Fear not Kings fans, even James wasn't bad enough to drop the Kings from the top five. This small adjustment ends up moving them back behind the Spurs and the Bucks. Still in fine company, and a solid lead over the mostly average competition.

Bonus for drafting Hedo and AJ.

Second Place (The New #1): The Spurs

Manu Ginobli and Luis Scola, both better than Tony Parker? When you consider that both Manu and Scola were taken near the end of their drafts (57 and 55 over all), they tend to stand out as great picks over the next two highest ranking picks from the Spurs (Parker and Barbosa who were taken with the 28 and 27 pick in their respective drafts). 20 picks over all, and two of the top six picks over the past ten years pushes the Spurs into the top spot.

In case you are wondering, Manu is, hands down, the best pick in the draft over the past ten years when you consider his talent level and position drafted. Not every pick the Spurs make is an amazing find however, for every Manu or Parker, there is a Chris Carrawell or Bryan Bracey, guys who never played in the NBA, ever. In the end, the good outweighs the bad, and the Spurs are holding firmly onto the top spot of our cookie rankings.

Third (now Second) Overall: The Bucks

How do the Bucks make it so high in rankings? I have three names for you. Michael Redd, Ramon Sessions, and Rafer Alston. All late second round draft picks (Alston was 39 overall, but Redd was 43 and Sessions 56).

Bonus for drafting Pat Garrity.

Fourth Place: The Suns

The Suns are interesting. Unlike most teams, every single pick from the Suns over the past 10 years has made an NBA roster. Of course, they sell off, or trade, most of their picks, so they also have the fewest picks overall for our data set as well (for all teams except the Bobcats, who haven't even been around for the full time frame). Way to go Phoenix! Your single stellar pick,

Stephen Jackson with the 42 pick in the '97 draft earn you fresh out of the oven status. What happens when you actually have to start using the draft to find talent?

Finishing Out the Top Five: Sonics

The Sonics have made the most selections out of our top group, 29 picks in the past ten years. One pick stands out above the rest, but they have several solid selections overall. Rashard Lewis, selected with the 32 pick in '98 is their standout. Solid picks like Earl Watson, Mark Blount, Carl Landry, and Willie Green (also all second round picks) show the Sonics to be a fairly craft team in the NBA draft.

Bonus for drafting Rashard Lewis.

Five teams, all having struck gold late in the second round. We should all be so lucky. Seriously. There is more to creating and sustaining a competitive team than just drafting, but the ability to find talent late in the draft certainly helps. Though keeping and cultivating that talent certainly goes a long way as well. Its one of the big differences between a team like the Spurs, and rest of the top five.

That wraps things up for this week. Thanks for tuning in (shouldn't you be working?), and don't forget to let me know what you think! Next week, Cooled Off, but Still Fresh and Delicious: Golden State, Pacers, Celtics, LeBrons, Pistons, and Wizards.

What are you? Nuggnuts?

Tonight, our Orlando Magic play the Denver Nuggets in what should be a good test of how well our team is going to play without Jameer Nelson against quality teams. Here's some info to get us ready for the game.

1. In a preview on Yahoo! Sports, reports are saying backup forward Chris Andersen is day-to-day with a left wrist sprain and left hip contusion. Andersen has 5 pts and 9 boards in the last contest against the Magic.
2. The Nuggets are playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back against the Florida teams. They defeated the Miami Heat last night 99-82.
3. Nuggets reserve guard J.R. Smith was named the replacement for Rudy Gay for Saturdays Sprite Slam Dunk Contest.
4. Orlando is 6-2 with Anthony Johnson as our starter.
   
5. Injured guard Jameer Nelson was actually selected by the Denver Nuggets with the 20th overall pick in the 2004 NBA Draft. He was then immediately traded to the Orlando Magic for a future first round draft pick.
6. *Brian Cook once consumed over 100 chicken nuggets in one sitting, breaking the All-Time Magic Nugget Eating record that was previously held by Shawn Kemp.

*Mr. Cook did not break the All-Time Magic Nugget Eating record, as the record does not actually exist. This statement was a work of fiction, and was in no way a knock on Mr. Cook, or his eating abilities. As a matter of fact, if Mr. Cook was able to consume 100 chicken nuggets in one sitting, I would be amazed and would owe him a handshake for the awesome accomplishment. Mr. Kemp also did not break any record, however, he would only get a head nod if he did.

Circle The Wagons

Today we have a guest post from a friend of TPASTBM and all-around good guy "Live or Die Magic," the Fan Voice over at Orlandomagic.com. - OCTB


Is the season over? Last week the pavements of central Florida ran red what with all the Magic fans jumping from the ledges. Meanwhile, the actual Magic team kept playing games:

• A home win over the Los Angeles Clippers.
• A road loss to the Indiana Pacers.
• A home win over the New Jersey Nets.

Solid, if not spectacular. But this is where the Orlando Magic stand after losing Jameer Nelson for the near-future, and quite likely, for the season. So, you could argue that we are up and down right now. Unfortunately, as reflected by the attitude of the Magic fans on the Orlando Magic Message Boards, there seems to be a bit more down than up.

This season has seen our expectations picked up, tossed high in the air, and spun around to the ground. In a matter of a couple of months the Magic went from being a team that hoped to advance past the second round to being a title contender and now back to being a team that hopes to advance past the second round. This much change this quick is perhaps too much for the fragile Magic fan’s psyche. After all, we were taking baby steps, not leaps. Two years ago we finally made the playoffs. Last year we made it out of the first round. Season sweeps of title contenders San Antonio and Los Angeles, and a strong first showing against the Cleveland Cavaliers made us start to incredulously wonder if we were on a championship run in Year Five of the Howard era. There was even that brief, bright day when we owned the best record in the entire NBA.

The easy way out is to think that it is all gone now. No more chance for a championship. But for me, nothing has changed. The team’s goals should remain the same even without a vastly improved and confident Jameer Nelson in the lineup. Otis Smith placed photos of the O’Brien trophy all over the Magic locker room. He gave an O’Brien trophy pin to every Magic staffer. This was done in the preseason. This was done before Dwight Howard decided to become the most dominant defensive force in the game. This was done before Rashard Lewis demonstrated his comfort in the Magic lineup and his all-star level confidence. This was done before Stan Van Gundy started outcoaching pretty much ever coach he’s faced. This was before Courtney Lee forgot he was a rookie and made us forget the 2005-to-2007 drafts. And yes, this was before Jameer Nelson proved Otis Smith right and started outperforming his contract.

So, if the goal was a title before we actually had any reason to think it should have been a goal, how can we, in our grief at the loss of Nelson, discard that goal after the first half of the season has gone so far beyond our expectations? As Magic fans, we should be used to some heartache, some frustration, and even a sense of betrayal. All of that emotional turmoil should have steeled us for a “go for broke” mentality this season, with or without Jameer.

We all know that Jameer has a competitive nature. Surely it must be eating him up that he is likely going to miss the season. It is all the more unfortunate that this is occurring so soon after he was announced as an all-star for the first time. Like everyone else within the Magic organization, he has sensed the touch of greatness on this season’s team. Despite the sense of urgency for this season, I can only guess that he and the team are pursuing a more long-term approach to his injury. As fans, can we really argue against this? I know I can’t. Believe me, I would love to see Jameer attempt a short period of rehab and then give it a go sometime in April. But I understand and accept the decision to protect the long-term health of a young player with much promise in seasons to come.

As for the other players in the Magic locker room, they certainly wish Jameer was along for the ride. But that ride is still in progress and even if Nelson isn’t playing, their goals remain the same. Dwight isn’t going to play with any less exuberance and joy just because his buddy isn’t on the court with him. It just isn’t in his nature. With Nelson out, each of Rashard Lewis shots become even more important. Hedo Turkoglu, more than any other player (yes, even more than Anthony Johnson) has more responsibility with Nelson out. Now he must dictate the flow of the offense for longer stretches during the first three quarters and as for the fourth quarter, well, if he was Mr. Fourth Quarter last season…

Anthony Johnson, Courtney Lee, and JJ Redick all will see time at the point guard position. None of them are a replacement for Jameer Nelson but all have the ability to distribute the ball and create their own shots. Courtney Lee’s progress and Redick’s rebirth made Keith Bogans expendable, allowing us to trade for Tyronn Lue.

Speaking of the Lue trade, let’s all agree on the following clarification: Tyronn Lue is not a replacement for Jameer Nelson. Tyronn Lue is a replacement for Anthony Johnson. AJ went from back-up point guard to starting point guard. Tyronn Lue went from third-string point guard to back-up point guard. There is a difference. In fact, between Turk, Lee, and Redick getting minutes at the point, I think Lue should expect quite a few DNP-CDs in his future.

Bogans-for-Lue wasn’t earth shattering or even sexy. But it was solid. My biggest fear was that Otis Smith would make a trade that he wouldn’t have considered prior to Nelson’s injury. I had to laugh at all the speculation of Otis moving Turkoglu in order to replace Jameer. Seriously? Turkoglu is even more important now and it will be his playmaking ability that will be the best possible replacement for what Nelson provided to the team. Bogans was a player that was likely in his last season with the team and he is replaced by a player about which we can say the same. Our roster is not disrupted by a new starting-caliber player who isn’t familiar with our personnel or our system. Most importantly, we did not add salary that would have compromised our cap flexibility beyond this season.

Meanwhile, the team is still playing well. Sure, there will be an adjustment period for a few more games, but this team is still on pace to be a top team in the East. So here it is: if the Magic players are adjusting to the loss of Nelson and continuing on with the season, goals still in sight, shouldn’t we? My excitement isn’t diminished, my hope for the outcome of the season is still strong. Good things may still come from this setback. We still have incredible players and an incredible coach that are going out and laying it down each night for our enjoyment. There will still be playoffs, there will still be an overmatched first round opponent. And yeah, there will still be that 2nd round matchup with a Cleveland, a Boston, an Atlanta, or a Detroit. And Nelson or no Nelson, I can’t wait to see how our Orlando Magic respond to that challenge.

Credit the Orlando Sentinel for the photos

Finding something positive out of tragedy

The Orlando Magic might have lost their All-Star point guard for the season. The Magic nation is freaking out, some are jumping from buildings, others are wrestling alligators, while many more are wrestling bears. There appears to be no reason to live or continue watching, because the season is over.

I disagree. Yes, possibly losing Nelson for the season is a big blow for the team that was fighting for the title and after many mediocre, and some terrible seasons, where finally being thought to be among the elite of the league. We have to remember we still have Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Hedo Turkoglu on the team. Two All-Stars, and another great player. Also remember that when we missed Nelson early in the season, Anthony Johnson delivered, and the team went 5-1, or something like that.(*I promise I'll check my sources/numbers next time).

But think about this for a second, yes I'm talking to you directly, our record stands at 36-11, with 35 games left in the season. Can this team be a .500 club? I don't see why not. That means we can go 18-17 the rest of the way and finish the season with a record of 54-28. That's 54 wins. Better than last year, and probably good enough to still be third in the East. Going .500 is very realistic, hell they might even do better than that.

Sure we would all love to continue with the winning ways, How long has it been since we can all feel like no matter who we play we will win? But it's not as bad as some think. A 50 plus win team is considered a success. We know that the real goal is to win the championship. I know we all wanted to see that this year. But it's OK, the team will be back stronger next year, while Boston gets even older and Lebronland is one injury away from imploding.

So Magic fans, look at the bright side…We will still have the third best record in the East. We will still lead the Division. We will still got to the Playoffs. We will still win the first round series. We will still be here to celebrate together.

Credit: NBA.com for the photo

Game vs Clippers or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Anthony Johnson

Tonight will be the first of many games the Orlando Magic will have to play without All-Star PG Jameer Nelson. For now, they look to start 34 year old journeyman Anthony Johnson, and spell him with the likes of Courtney Lee and Hedo Turkoglu. Alot of Magic fans are worried about AJ being the starting PG on a championship contending team, myself included. However, let's take a look at some of the benefits of having him be our no.1 guy for the time being.

• Experience: AJ knows what it takes to get the job done. Despite his shortcomings on the offense end, and his lack of athleticism, he knows what not to do and what to do to get the W. He's averaging less then 1 turnover a game in 18 minutes played. While his other stats (4.3 pts, 2.6 assists) don't jump out at you, that is good ball management by the veteran.
  
• He's been here before: When Jameer was out with injury earlier in the year, AJ stepped in and had some of his best games of the season with the starting unit, including a 12 assist game against the Wizards. Maybe he just needs to have a better supporting cast around him to be able to succeed, instead of having only 1 star forward and Tony Battie to work with. No offense Tony....
• He has no neck: That has to count for something. Whether it be intimidation, or just making his opponent marvel at the fact that they are guarding someone who is the complete opposite of a giraffe, the no neck factor is key to AJ's success.
• He'll give you a sock in the mouth if you try to go for a layup: Reference the picture to the right if you don't believe me.
• He owns a custom door and window company: Beat that Chris Paul.

So tonight, the Clippers will be first to experience the AJ era as we close the door possibly on Jameers exciting All-Star season. Atleast there is a bright side, AJ gave us a discount on that door. Bazing!

Photo by Ron Turenne/NBAE via Getty Images

Breaking down Jameer's injury

12:30 Update: The Orlando Sentinel is reporting Jameer tore his labrum. Options are rehab or season ending surgery. Regardless, it will be a lot of time out of the lineup.

--------------------------------

First, the Magic fell to the Mavericks last night 105-95 in what was a rather poor effort. During the 3rd quarter Jameer Nelson hurt himself chasing a loose ball near the Maverick bench. Favoring his right side he immediately went to the locker room.

ESPN highlights
NBA.com highlights

An MRI comes today. Word is a dislocated shoulder. Of course, injury time varies. Recently Brandan Wright was put on the shelf for a minimum of 3 weeks. Larry Hughes was lost "six to eight weeks" and Elton Brand missed a month. But whatever, I'm not a doctor.

So, what does this mean to the Magic, both short and long term?

• This obviously changes Jameer and the All-Star game. He was confirmed as a participant in the skills competition and was certainly going to assist Dwight in the dunk contest. This also opens the door for Mo Williams, the Cleveland point who was the biggest snub in the East.
• If Jameer is out for a significant amount of time it will certainly change the seating of the Eastern Conference's elite. Whoever ends up first in the East, whether that be Orlando, Boston, or Cleveland, will have a huge advantage as they will not have to face one of the other two until the 3rd round.
  
• If Jameer were to be out for a month or longer, now is a much better time than two months from now when the playoffs are looming.
  
• Another point guard will need to be brought in. AJ is a suitable backup but will have a problem handling the minutes of a starter. So who should the Magic bring in? Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel seems to think Jason Williams might work. Marbury? Tinsley? Carlos Arroyo? One thing is for sure, Otis Smith is not about to bring in a questionable character that might negatively influence this already great locker room.
  
• Before the season, after the injury to Mike Wilks, there was talk of Courtney Lee potentially moving over to the point for some minutes. The injury to Jameer might force this and further help develop this rookie who is having a stellar year. Courtney aside, everyone is going to have to take it up a notch and shot a bit better than 3-20 from three point range...
  
• Talk recently has been that Orlando needs help for Dwight down low. Not anymore.
• Jameer missed 5 games earlier this year and the Magic went 4-1 with the only loss being a 107-88 beat down to the Celtics.
  
• It's interesting that before the season many people were saying that Orlando couldn't win it all with Jameer. Now it sounds like people are saying Orlando can't win it without him.
  

How do I feel about this? It certainly rains a bit on our parade, but I don't doubt that we will be fine in the end. If Dwight is the superstar he is suppose to be, he will put this entire team on his shoulders.

Thanks to NBullsBasketball for the Jameer image.

Top 3 headlines you won't see on any sports site

After crushing the Indiana Pacers 135-111, the sports writers will have to think of a headline for their recap of the game. My guess is that there will be a pun or two involved. Here, we think of 3 headlines you won't be finding on the front page of ESPN this morning.

3. "Anthony Johnson and his Pacemakers send the Pacers into cardiac arrest"

2. "Pacers embarrass themselves and their children: Lose 111-135"

And 1. "Brian Cook grabs 2 boards, helps Magic win 135-111"


It could be worse. I could have said "Magic make losing streak disappear, beat Pacers". Am I Right?

Credit: NBA.com for the photo