MMMMM Cookie

Last week was supposed to be the second tier of NBA drafting ability, but someone (Paul Ego) was out of the office sick. Quite frankly, none of you were important enough for me to drag my sorry sick self to the office to continue my cookie draft rankings. I believe our second tier of deliciousness is fresh cookie goodness, cooled off and ready to eat. Yum. Milk anyone?

Lets kick things off and see what pushed these teams up to the second tier, or what held them back from the top...

First up: Golden State

Vaulted to the top of this group by two second round draft picks, the Warriors showed a keen eye for selfish potential by picking Gilbert Arenas (30 overall) and Monta Ellis (40). All they needed was one more decent second round pick to push them into the top tier. Wait, what's this? Marc Jackson has a career PER of 0.0? That can't be right. You can't trust ANYONE these days, what every happened to taking pride in your work? Okay, lets set that career PER to 14.1, where it should be, and re-evaluate Golden State. What do you know, they just jumped up to fourth overall, and pushed Seattle back to sixth. My groupings are based on separation of data, not simple groupings (top 5 etc.), so this doesn't knock Seattle into the second tear.

Two notes of interest. GSW have played like they took a GSW to the chest this season. Mention Monta Ellis in your post, and suggested labels like "scooters, vacation, fall" pop up. Just in case you were wondering why he got hit with selfish player tag.

Next up: The Pacers

The new (by default) number one of the cooled off but still fresh cookies, Indiana has the fewest picks of any team in this tier with 14 overall. This is important, because they have a dearth of stand out picks in the second round. James Jones comes in as their best second round pick, 49 overall, and that's a far cry from picking up players like Arenas or Ellis late in the draft. How then do they find themselves in the second tier? The strength of great mid to late first round picks, that's how. Al Harrington anyone? What about he who can not be named? Yeah, that one hurt, didn't it, Magic fans?

Rounding out the second tier:

I'm grouping the next three teams together, because I hate writing about all three of these teams, for obvious reasons. Boston, Cleveland, and Detroit all made it into the second tier. I refuse to say anything else about these three teams, and guess what? This is my article, and I don't get paid, so I can do whatever I want in this spot! If you came here for some good word on one of these three teams, take a hike!

Join us next week as we talk about the bulk of the league, and every one's favorite team, "Your, Orlandooooooooo Magic"!

Fresh Out of the Oven

Last week, I wrote the beginnings of my league wide draft analysis for the past ten years.

As promised, this weeks continuation of draft analysis and rankings by team will discuss the top five in our cookie rankings. These are the freshest of fresh, warm, right out of the oven cookies that everyone loves. The Kings, Spurs, Bucks, Suns, and Sonics (I simply refuse to acknowledge them under any other name), are all in the top 5 of our rankings. How did they get there? Better yet, after a more in depth analysis, will they remain?

First up: The Kings.

From Anthony Johnson, to Spencer Hawes, and everyone in between, what has Sac Town done to deserve our highest honor? First of all, in this span, they have only 15 selections overall. A smaller group is more easily impacted by one or two good draft choices. Their three "best" selections overall? Would you believe that Kevin Martin, and Gerald Wallace, both taken late in the first round (26, and 25 in their respective drafts) come in as only the second and third best selections in this ten year span? Number one? Jerome James.

The Jerome James? That can't be right, the guy was a career back up, and wasn't even a good back up. Okay, upon further review, his PER rating was artificially inflated due to a whopping 45 per from his 5 minutes of playing time last season. Drop him back down to reality, and now the Kings are slipping. How fitting that our first bit of controversy in the cookie rankings are due to a guy nicknamed "Big Snacks"!

Fear not Kings fans, even James wasn't bad enough to drop the Kings from the top five. This small adjustment ends up moving them back behind the Spurs and the Bucks. Still in fine company, and a solid lead over the mostly average competition.

Bonus for drafting Hedo and AJ.

Second Place (The New #1): The Spurs

Manu Ginobli and Luis Scola, both better than Tony Parker? When you consider that both Manu and Scola were taken near the end of their drafts (57 and 55 over all), they tend to stand out as great picks over the next two highest ranking picks from the Spurs (Parker and Barbosa who were taken with the 28 and 27 pick in their respective drafts). 20 picks over all, and two of the top six picks over the past ten years pushes the Spurs into the top spot.

In case you are wondering, Manu is, hands down, the best pick in the draft over the past ten years when you consider his talent level and position drafted. Not every pick the Spurs make is an amazing find however, for every Manu or Parker, there is a Chris Carrawell or Bryan Bracey, guys who never played in the NBA, ever. In the end, the good outweighs the bad, and the Spurs are holding firmly onto the top spot of our cookie rankings.

Third (now Second) Overall: The Bucks

How do the Bucks make it so high in rankings? I have three names for you. Michael Redd, Ramon Sessions, and Rafer Alston. All late second round draft picks (Alston was 39 overall, but Redd was 43 and Sessions 56).

Bonus for drafting Pat Garrity.

Fourth Place: The Suns

The Suns are interesting. Unlike most teams, every single pick from the Suns over the past 10 years has made an NBA roster. Of course, they sell off, or trade, most of their picks, so they also have the fewest picks overall for our data set as well (for all teams except the Bobcats, who haven't even been around for the full time frame). Way to go Phoenix! Your single stellar pick,

Stephen Jackson with the 42 pick in the '97 draft earn you fresh out of the oven status. What happens when you actually have to start using the draft to find talent?

Finishing Out the Top Five: Sonics

The Sonics have made the most selections out of our top group, 29 picks in the past ten years. One pick stands out above the rest, but they have several solid selections overall. Rashard Lewis, selected with the 32 pick in '98 is their standout. Solid picks like Earl Watson, Mark Blount, Carl Landry, and Willie Green (also all second round picks) show the Sonics to be a fairly craft team in the NBA draft.

Bonus for drafting Rashard Lewis.

Five teams, all having struck gold late in the second round. We should all be so lucky. Seriously. There is more to creating and sustaining a competitive team than just drafting, but the ability to find talent late in the draft certainly helps. Though keeping and cultivating that talent certainly goes a long way as well. Its one of the big differences between a team like the Spurs, and rest of the top five.

That wraps things up for this week. Thanks for tuning in (shouldn't you be working?), and don't forget to let me know what you think! Next week, Cooled Off, but Still Fresh and Delicious: Golden State, Pacers, Celtics, LeBrons, Pistons, and Wizards.

What do cookies and drafting have in common? Part 1

Nothing if you are a fan of NASCAR, but this is a basketball blog, so if you're looking for tips on how to ride someones bumper in traffic to save on gas, GTFO.

I love cookies. Cookies are good. Nothing beats the gooey freshness and warmth of a chocolate chip cookie fresh out of the oven. Let them sit a little while to cool off and they can be almost as good. Eventually some will be put into a tin and sent to friends around the holidays. They get a little crunchy, but still tastes great, especially with milk. Unfortunately, cookies don't last forever, and eventually they get stale. These are the four groups of home-made cookies. No matter what kind of cookie you like, if it's made by mom, it will fall into one of these four groups when you get your greedy, grubby little hands on them.

What does this have to do with drafting? I have (with a little help from my friends) begun to analyze the NBA draft over the past several years in an attempt to rate teams in order of drafting prowess. I have arbitrarily created a mathematical formula that means next to nothing in the realm of all things rational. I applied this formula to every draft pick from 1997-2007, and came up with a draft "score" per team. Averaging this score amongst their draft picks, I am able to rank each team based on their selections - and the performance of their selections - in the NBA.

In order to keep player perceptions out of the mix, I used Hollinger PER rankings as a measure of player performance. Teams get a bonus for years a player stuck around in the league, and a player's draft worth increases as their pick increases. An All-Star player picked first overall is not worth much because you expect great things from such an early pick, but identifying talent late in the draft can mean a significant bonus for your overall status. Think Dwight Howard vs. Manu Ginobli. Do the Magic get more credit for selecting Dwight overall when compared to the Spurs selecting Manu with the 57 pick in draft?

A couple points to keep in mind. This is draft picks only. This isn't to say that a team that drafts horribly can't be a decent team, or that a team that is excellent at drafting is a great team overall (though it certainly can't hurt). Also, if a team selects a player on behalf of another team, then trades said player to said team, the team ending up with said player gets credit for the selection.

Over the coming weeks, I will break down this list into four main groups.

• Fresh out of the oven yummy cookies
  
• Cooled off, but still fresh deliciousness
• Out of the tin and still great with milk
• Stale and ready to be thrown out

I welcome your comments, input, and pictures of lolcats equally. This is a beginning, and will be treated as such. Your inputs may impact the overall document, sway my thoughts on the formula, point out errors in my process, or just make me laugh at you. So, without any further discussion, I give you "Paul Ego's Draft Rankings".

1. SAC
2. SAS
3. MIL
4. PHX
5. SEA
6. GSW
7. IND
8. BOS
9. CLE
10. DET
11. WAS
12. UTH
13. NJN
14. MEM
15. ORL
16. NYK
17. NOR
18. LAL
19. CHI
20. PHI
21. DAL
22. MIA
23. HOU
24. DEN
25. MIN
26. LAC
27. ATL
28. POR
29. CHA
30. TOR

Next week: Hot and fresh out of the oven. The top five teams.