What do cookies and drafting have in common? Part 1

Nothing if you are a fan of NASCAR, but this is a basketball blog, so if you're looking for tips on how to ride someones bumper in traffic to save on gas, GTFO.

I love cookies. Cookies are good. Nothing beats the gooey freshness and warmth of a chocolate chip cookie fresh out of the oven. Let them sit a little while to cool off and they can be almost as good. Eventually some will be put into a tin and sent to friends around the holidays. They get a little crunchy, but still tastes great, especially with milk. Unfortunately, cookies don't last forever, and eventually they get stale. These are the four groups of home-made cookies. No matter what kind of cookie you like, if it's made by mom, it will fall into one of these four groups when you get your greedy, grubby little hands on them.

What does this have to do with drafting? I have (with a little help from my friends) begun to analyze the NBA draft over the past several years in an attempt to rate teams in order of drafting prowess. I have arbitrarily created a mathematical formula that means next to nothing in the realm of all things rational. I applied this formula to every draft pick from 1997-2007, and came up with a draft "score" per team. Averaging this score amongst their draft picks, I am able to rank each team based on their selections - and the performance of their selections - in the NBA.

In order to keep player perceptions out of the mix, I used Hollinger PER rankings as a measure of player performance. Teams get a bonus for years a player stuck around in the league, and a player's draft worth increases as their pick increases. An All-Star player picked first overall is not worth much because you expect great things from such an early pick, but identifying talent late in the draft can mean a significant bonus for your overall status. Think Dwight Howard vs. Manu Ginobli. Do the Magic get more credit for selecting Dwight overall when compared to the Spurs selecting Manu with the 57 pick in draft?

A couple points to keep in mind. This is draft picks only. This isn't to say that a team that drafts horribly can't be a decent team, or that a team that is excellent at drafting is a great team overall (though it certainly can't hurt). Also, if a team selects a player on behalf of another team, then trades said player to said team, the team ending up with said player gets credit for the selection.

Over the coming weeks, I will break down this list into four main groups.

• Fresh out of the oven yummy cookies
  
• Cooled off, but still fresh deliciousness
• Out of the tin and still great with milk
• Stale and ready to be thrown out

I welcome your comments, input, and pictures of lolcats equally. This is a beginning, and will be treated as such. Your inputs may impact the overall document, sway my thoughts on the formula, point out errors in my process, or just make me laugh at you. So, without any further discussion, I give you "Paul Ego's Draft Rankings".

1. SAC
2. SAS
3. MIL
4. PHX
5. SEA
6. GSW
7. IND
8. BOS
9. CLE
10. DET
11. WAS
12. UTH
13. NJN
14. MEM
15. ORL
16. NYK
17. NOR
18. LAL
19. CHI
20. PHI
21. DAL
22. MIA
23. HOU
24. DEN
25. MIN
26. LAC
27. ATL
28. POR
29. CHA
30. TOR

Next week: Hot and fresh out of the oven. The top five teams.

Playoff Basketball

Music Mondays is a perfect 100% when it comes to your Orlando Magic. This weeks selection was "Let's Get Physical", and get physical is just what Orlando did against LeBron James and the rest of the Cavs team. Judging by their loss of composure in the third quarter, I would say they didn't like it very much.

It was a beautiful sight to behold, watching our Magic men get physical, watching them play playoff basketball in a big game, instead of watching it get played against them. Boston came in and played a very physical game, and Orlando's response was to complain. It took the Magic out of their game and got them into a Boston style game that the Celtics easily won. Lesson learned?

A lot of people (who don't watch the Magic play), think of Orlando as nothing more than a 3 point shooting team. "Live by the three, die by the three", and "Jump shooting teams don't win in the playoffs" are the rally calls of opposing fans and talking heads in the media that seek to discredit the Magic. Now that he has witnessed the Magic play first hand, at least one of those talking heads is starting to see what we Magic faithful have known for quite some time. Hollinger has a great article about the real Orlando Magic, and how they really win games. Last night was a beautiful example. It was well into the third quarter before Orlando's three point shooting surpassed the 30% mark. Dwight and company already had a 6 point lead by that time. Once the threes started falling in the fourth, Orlando pulled away easily. How did they do it? Defense. You know, that thing that Cleveland and Boston get credit for, but Orlando doesn't get mentioned. Keeping James out of the paint (after rolling out the red carpet for him in the first), and off the free throw line.

A lot of the defensive assignment in the second half fell upon rookie Courtney Lee. You know, that skinny kid Orlando picked up in the draft. He has to be giving up around 100 pounds to King James. He managed to keep LeBron out of the paint and content to shoot jumpers for most of the second half. It wasn't just CLee though, Pietrus took his turns (getting a steal and an assist to a streaking Hedo in the process), even Lewis guarded him at times.

The Magic played their style of basketball, with playoff intensity, and it paid off. LeBron seems to be getting a little more accustomed to getting the calls than I would like to see, if I were a Cavs fan. Speaking of Cavs fans, I read a lot of complaints this morning about LeBron not getting calls and getting hacked in the paint. I don't think any of them have watched Dwight play very often, or they wouldn't be complaining.

Parting thoughts...

Lots of Cleveland fans in the house last night. Somehow the seats next to mine always seem to be filled with opposing team fans for big games. In the past month, I've had to sit beside fans of the Lakers, Spurs, Celtics, Cavs, and had an obnoxious Wizards fan behind us. Come on Orlando, lets fill this place with Magic fans!

Every month I keep track of the Magic wins and losses on an Orlando Magic calendar. I put a big blue "W" or "L" for the day, depending on the outcome of the game. It's nice when people who don't follow the Magic faithfully see it on the wall and remark on how many wins the Magic have. Orlando has not lost more than three games in any month so far this season.

Watching LeBron argue with a ref after a missed shot and no foul call, I asked the person next to me what he could possibly be saying to the ref. This was her reply:

(said in a horrible imitation of Dave Chappelle) "I'm King James, bitch!"

ESPN's coverage
NBA.com Video
Magic give King James and the Cavs a royal whoopin' - Orlando Sentinel
GM Otis Smith's faith in Rashard Lewis and Jameer Nelson pays off - Orlando Sentinel
A closer look at Magic vs. Cavs - Orlando Sentinel
Star-crossed Cavaliers get drubbed after snub - Cleveland Plain Dealer
Orlando too much for Cavaliers - Florida Today
Star-Studded Magic Top Cleveland - Lakeland Ledger